Anticipatory governance systems: a review of approaches to design public policies for sustainable development

Uncertainty, complexity, and the interdependence of socio-economic systems make it increasingly necessary to promote an anticipatory governance system approach to achieve socio-economic development outcomes. The global commitment to a long-term approach has been recently reinforced by the adoption of the United Nations’ Pact for the Future and the related Declaration on Future Generations, which promotes institutional reforms based on science and data, as well as the use of strategic foresight tools. This paper offers a preliminary technical review of the key features macroeconomic models need to address policy questions in today’s uncertain context. First, we develop a set of criteria based on existing literature. Second, we apply these criteria to assess the anticipatory governance capacity of macroeconomic models and propose a typology for sustainability-oriented policy analysis. Clear typologies support effective scientific communication, help prevent misleading model comparisons, and support strategic planning in the face of future challenges.