How country of origins of food products compete and grow

This study proposes an alternative approach to the usual cognitive investigation of the purchasing behaviour for food products by country-of-origin (COO). The new approach is based on two well-known behavioural models: the Negative Binomial Distribution and the Dirichlet model. Using two large datasets of actual purchasing of COOs of wine and butter in the UK, the study finds that both models are capable of describing and predicting COO purchasing behaviour in a probabilistic and polygamous manner (not loyal to one origin). The study also identifies several important patterns of COO purchases that are associated with these models, including the double jeopardy pattern and the duplication of purchase pattern. These patterns can be used to develop strategy to grow product sales based on COO. They can also be used to evaluate the effects of marketing interventions, such as origin-based promotions and communications based on COO.