The ageing of farmers and the lack of successors in many farms are among the major concerns about the future of the sector. The paper is focused on the age structure of family workers with a twofold objective. First, the ageing dynamics is analyzed in order to seek its inertial components and to find out eventual novel trends. Data released by the new Census shows that the unbalance pertains basically to farms’ head who had no successor within their family. They belonged to a still relatively large age cohort of farmers who were young at the end of the great rural exodus. Secondly, by the mean of a cluster analysis (CA), territorial patterns are explored with the aim of shedding light on the sectorial and exogenous factors that influence the age of farmers. The analysis highlights different patterns of the relations in the Northern provinces and in the Southern ones. In the first area, a positive relationship between a higher share of young farmers and a more solid productive structure in the primary sector as well as with a better-off economy emerge. Differently, in southern provinces a higher share of young farmers is associated with a more fragile context and thus should be interpreted as the result of the lack of employment alternatives for young farmers.
Tra le minacce sempre più frequentemente paventate per il futuro del settore agricolo un posto rilevante è occupato dalla senilizzazione della manodopera e dallo scarso ricambio generazionale. Il lavoro si concentra sulle modificazioni della struttura demografica della manodopera familiare con un duplice obbiettivo. Da un lato, ne vengono ricostruite le dinamiche recenti, al fine di evidenziare la eventuale residua componente inerziale, ma anche “a caccia” di eventuali elementi di novità. I dati dell’ultimo censimento mostrano che lo squilibrio è a carico dei soli conduttori soprattutto a causa della mancata successione all’interno delle famiglie di una coorte di età ancora relativamente numerosa costituita da familiari che erano giovani verso la fine del grande esodo. Dall’altro lato, una cluster analysis (CA) su dati provinciali, consente di analizzare il complesso intreccio di fattori, interni e di contesto, che contribuiscono ad influenzare la presenza giovanile in agricoltura. L’analisi territoriale evidenzia differenze significative tra circoscrizioni geografiche. Al Nord vi è una netta relazione positiva tra la presenza di conduttori giovani, la solidità strutturale e la redditività del settore, da un lato, e lo sviluppo economico generale del territorio. Nel Mezzogiorno, invece la presenza giovanile si associa a condizioni di fragilità del contesto a va dunque interpretata come una scelta dettata dalla mancanza di alternative occupazionali per i giovani agricoltori.
Dinamica generazionale e dimensione territoriale dell'agricoltura italiana
Carbone A;
2014-01-01
Abstract
The ageing of farmers and the lack of successors in many farms are among the major concerns about the future of the sector. The paper is focused on the age structure of family workers with a twofold objective. First, the ageing dynamics is analyzed in order to seek its inertial components and to find out eventual novel trends. Data released by the new Census shows that the unbalance pertains basically to farms’ head who had no successor within their family. They belonged to a still relatively large age cohort of farmers who were young at the end of the great rural exodus. Secondly, by the mean of a cluster analysis (CA), territorial patterns are explored with the aim of shedding light on the sectorial and exogenous factors that influence the age of farmers. The analysis highlights different patterns of the relations in the Northern provinces and in the Southern ones. In the first area, a positive relationship between a higher share of young farmers and a more solid productive structure in the primary sector as well as with a better-off economy emerge. Differently, in southern provinces a higher share of young farmers is associated with a more fragile context and thus should be interpreted as the result of the lack of employment alternatives for young farmers.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.