This work focuses on the analysis of future feasible 2030 scenarios of the Italian vehicle fleet in view of the decarbonization targets agreed within the “Fit for 55” package. This was done through a calculation model of the Italian road fleet’s Well-to-Wheel GHG emissions and energy consumption of the energy carrier supply chains. The same EU targets for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading System was assumed (−43.7% GHG emissions compared to 2005). In a deep uncertainty contest, two different scenarios have been built up to represent the upper and lower bound of a range in which the real 2030 scenario will be placed. The model has been validated simulating the 2019 scenario against the official Italian database on energy carrier market. The 2030 predictions demonstrate that the actual trends and policies appears not enough for the target matching. However, with the introduction of trend breaking actions, based on the massive introduction of green vehicles and biofuels, Italy might be able to achieve encouraging reductions in WtW based GHG emissions; up to 40% with reference to 2005.
A Feasibility Study on the Italian Road Transportation Capability to Meet the 2030 EU Decarbonization Targets
Cascetta E.;Henke I.;Patella S. M.;
2025-01-01
Abstract
This work focuses on the analysis of future feasible 2030 scenarios of the Italian vehicle fleet in view of the decarbonization targets agreed within the “Fit for 55” package. This was done through a calculation model of the Italian road fleet’s Well-to-Wheel GHG emissions and energy consumption of the energy carrier supply chains. The same EU targets for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading System was assumed (−43.7% GHG emissions compared to 2005). In a deep uncertainty contest, two different scenarios have been built up to represent the upper and lower bound of a range in which the real 2030 scenario will be placed. The model has been validated simulating the 2019 scenario against the official Italian database on energy carrier market. The 2030 predictions demonstrate that the actual trends and policies appears not enough for the target matching. However, with the introduction of trend breaking actions, based on the massive introduction of green vehicles and biofuels, Italy might be able to achieve encouraging reductions in WtW based GHG emissions; up to 40% with reference to 2005.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
